Scott was aware of a number of the dangers that his Polar party faced.
One concern was with the weather. The plan for the expedition was to leave on 3 November 1911 and to allow 144 days for the trip, returning on 27 March 1912. This was very late in the season and certainly far longer than early February which had been Shackleton's returning time.
George Simpson, the expedition's meteorologist, stated in his diary that there was "little margin, and a few accidents or a spell of bad weather" would bring "failure but very likely disaster".
For Scott one of the biggest challenges of the expedition was the ability of the men to perform the task. There was no doubt that the journey would be a test of human endurance.
The time spent in challenging weather conditions, the effort of man-hauling and the effects of altitude were to be a serious test of the human body's strength and stamina.
In his diary Frank Debenham quotes Scott as saying "I don't know whether it is possible for men to last out that time, I almost doubt it".
Frostbite and hypothermia were always a serious threat.
The food rations were worked out on the basis of experimentation and knowledge of diet at the time.
They did not have the scientific basis for a diet that would have overcome their problems.
The risks of attempting this Polar expedition have been fully explored by the IceTrek team.
The dangers of crevasses, cold and mental deprivation have all been analysed and prepared for.
The team is well versed with crevasse and cold dangers but have sought counselling from a relationship counsellor to work through strategies and mechanisms for dealing with conflict and stress.
One way of dealing with risk is to prepare contingency plans for certain events.
IceTrek is a team of very experienced expeditioners, capable of retaining sound judgment in crises and making good decisions in critical situations. Self rescue is IceTrek's primary objective in the event of difficulties, however external evacuation will be initiated if life is threatened.
Self Rescue
By the very nature of IceTrek's plan, self rescue is the primary form of evacuation. The establishment of depots of food and fuel ensure that the expeditions return route is provisioned.
In the event of a crevasse fall in which food is lost, the expedition can rely on depots to return to Scott Base. In the event of a death, the expedition will decide whether to continue or to return to Scott Base. An evacuation will be initiated in the event of 2 deaths.
In the event of a non life threatening injury, IceTrek will decide whether to sled the casualty to the Pole or sled the casualty to Scott Base. An evacuation will be initiated in the event of a life-threatening injury or illness.
External Evacuation
In the event of an emergency requiring evacuation IceTrek will undertake the following procedure:
Due to the capabilities of the Iridium, Argos and Radio equipment, an EPIRB will not be carried.
Emergency Scenario Procedures
The following scenarios are those which can be foreseen. Many other potential emergencies exist (fire in tent, equipment failure, fuel shortage, stove damage etc.) from which a solution can only be determined after assessment.
Possible scenarios involving Members, Equipment and Provisions.
* In the event of a double casualty, the remaining member will decide whether to continue solo.
a. One member with a non life threatening injury.
Solution: sled the casualty to the Pole or sled the casualty to Scott Base, or until recovery.
b. Two members with a non life threatening injury.*
Solution: remain in camp until recovery or evacuate if no progress shown.
c. One member with a life threatening injury.
Solution: evacuate immediately. Other two will decide to continue
d. Two members with a life threatening injury. *
Solution: evacuate immediately.
f. Three members injured (highly unlikely)
Solution: evacuate immediately.
g. Death of one member
Solution: communicate situation to Scott Base. Continue or evacuate.
h. Death of two members
Solution: evacuate immediately
i. Loss of or low provisions / equipment failure
Solution: repair or improvise equipment, resupply from emergency food and equipment cache at Scott Base, or adopt food rationing to continue to Pole or return to Scott Base.
Possible scenarios involving Navigation and Communication Aids All items will be distributed evenly amongst group to avoid total immobilisation in the event of loss.
a. GPS failure
Solution: carry spare batteries and spare GPS. Items to be distributed amongst group
b. Double GPS failure
Solution: if close to Pole, continue on dead reckoning (map and compass), otherwise return to Scott Base on dead reckoning and depot collection.
IceTrek's position can be relayed from the Argos Melbourne Earth Station via Scott Base.
c. Argos platform failure
Solution: carry spare beacon
d. Double Argos platform failure
Solution: notify Scott Base or South Pole of Argos failure via HF radio or Iridium phone. Continue sked program notifying position and messages.
e. Iridium Phone failure
Solution: notify Scott Base or South Pole of telephone failure via HF radio.
f. Failure of HF Radio
Solution: Continue expedition. Use Iridium phone for primary communications. Argos will continue to track the expedition.
g. Failure of all communications (highly unlikely)
Solution: "Beam me up Scotty!" A predetermined protocol will be established amongst IceTrek's office and Scott Base (see below)
Communications failure protocol.
In the event of total communication failure, USAP will fly to last known position to evacuate or resupply with communication aids. In the meantime, IceTrek will leave a snow cairn and message at last communication location advising pilot of direction of travel, condition etc.